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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures mixed after crude inventory increase

HOUSTON, January 25, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Wednesday after government figures showed an increase in crude stocks and a build in gasoline.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline, and diesel. Refinery crude inputs were lower, especially in the Gulf Coast; exports of products were lower but still healthy.

As of 10:33 am CST, March NYMEX WTI rose $0.21/bbl to $53.39/bbl, February gasoline was down 2.80 cpg to 154.79 cpg and February diesel was up down 1.32 cpg to 162.83/gal.

Crude inventories up 2.8m barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending January 20 showed a 2.8 million barrel increase in crude inventories to 488.3 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.961 million b/d, up 17,000 b/d for the week, and 260,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were down 568,000 b/d to about 7.8million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.1 million b/d, an increase of 4.3% compared to last year at this time.

Gasoline imports up at 593,000 b/d

Gasoline imports were put at 593,000 b/d, up from 588,000 b/d the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 576,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 159,000 b/d, up from 152,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 156,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 19.0 million b/d, down 2.6% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 6.8 million barrels to 253.2 million barrels (“above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), and 4.8 million barrels over last year. Demand was 8.3 million b/d over the past four weeks, off 4.7% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks rose 0.1 million barrels

Distillate stocks were put at 169.1 million barrels (“above the upper limit of the average range”), 0.1 million barrels above last week, and 8.7 million barrels above last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.4 million b/d, up 1.3% compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 68.2 million barrels (still “in the upper half of the average range”), down 4.0 million barrels on the week, and lower by 15.5 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million b/d, down 421,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were off 2.4% on the week, put at 88.3% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs were down 4.6% to 87.4%.

Exports 128,000 b/d lower

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.461 million b/d, lower by 128,000 b/d for the week, still a fairly bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 8.3 million b/d, total gasoline production came in 8.825 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.4 million b/d, but production was 4.575 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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