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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX WTI falls on crude stock rise; first increase in 6 weeks

HOUSTON, October 12, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were lower early Thursday after government figures showed a build in crude stocks.

This is the first time in six weeks that crude stocks have increased. Inventories still are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA.

The US remains long in gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude inputs fell significantly, however.  Domestic gasoline demand remains healthy and export volumes of products were good.

As of 10:24 am CST, November NYMEX WTI fell $0.58/bbl to $49.60/bbl; November gasoline was down 0.20 cpg at 145.99 cpg, and November diesel decreased 3.19 cpg to 158.63 cpg.

Crude inventories up 4.9 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending October 7 showed a 4.9 million barrel increase in crude inventories to 474 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.450 million b/d, down 17,000 b/d for the week, and 646,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.

Starting with the Weekly Petroleum Status Report published on October 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will no longer include crude oil lease stocks in the U.S. total commercial crude oil inventory data series. Historical inventory total have been revisesd to reflect the new methodology

Imports of crude were up 151,000 b/d to 7.9 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.9 million b/d, an increase of 8.9% compared to last year at this time.

Essentially, domestic crude production is lower, but imports have replaced many of the lost barrels.

Gasoline imports down 762,000 b/d

Gasoline imports were put at 762,000 b/d, down from 1,003 million b/d the previous week. For the same period last year the figure was 719,000 b/d.  Distillate imports were 95,000 b/d, down from 103,000 b/d from last week and from 130,000 b/d the previous year (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.0 million b/d, up 2.4% versus the same period last year.  

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up down 1.9 million barrels at 225.5 million barrels (still “above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 4.2 million barrels over last year. Demand was 9.3 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 2.3% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks fell 3.7 million barrels to 157 million barrels (“above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 9.3 million barrels over last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was down 3.5% to 3.8 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 100,000 barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 103.9 million barrels, down 0.1 million on the week and up 1.8 million versus last year.

Total US refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million b/d, down 480,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were down 2.8% on the week, put at 85.5% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs were down 3.6% to 86.0%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.125 million b/d, down 467,000 b/d for the week, but still a bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.3 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.935 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.8 million b/d, but production was 4.496 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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