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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX WTI mixed; market weighs warring API, EIA stock data

HOUSTON, October 26, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Wednesday after government figures showed a drop in crude stocks.

The NYMEX had been down earlier after American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday afternoon showed a build in crude and gasoline stocks.

The US, however, remains long in gasoline, and diesel. Refinery crude inputs are low, reflecting the turnaround season. Domestic gasoline demand fell slightly, but export volumes of products were bullish.

As of 9:55 am CST, December NYMEX WTI fell $0.03/bbl to $49.93/bbl; November gasoline was down 1.17 cpg to 148.88 cpg and November diesel was up 0.81 cpg to 157.12 gal.

Crude inventories down 0.6 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending October 21 showed a 0.6 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 468.2 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.504 million b/d, up 40,000 b/d for the week, but 608,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were down 109,000 b/d to 7.0 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.4 million b/d, an increase of 2.1% compared to last year at this time.

Essentially, domestic crude production was marginally up, but imports have fallen.

Gasoline imports fall to 834,000 b/d

Gasoline imports were put at 834,000 b/d, down from 871,000 b/d the previous week. For the same period last year the figure was 722,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 74,000 b/d, up from 32,000 b/d last week and 108,000 b/d the previous year (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.4 million b/d, up 4.3% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 2.0 million barrels at 226 million barrel (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 7.4 million barrels over last year. Demand was 9.1 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks fell 3.4 million barrels to 152.4 million b/d (“above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 10.3 million b/d over last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was up 2.5% to 4.1 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 2.1 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 100.6 million barrels, down 2.1 million barrels on the week, and down 1.0 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million b/d, up 182,000 b/d compared with the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were up 0.6% on the week, put at 85.6 % of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs were off 0.2% to 85.9%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.133 million b/d, up 846,000 b/d for the week, a bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.1 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.837 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, but production was 4.536 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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