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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX shoots higher on crude and product exports

HOUSTON, October 25, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were higher early Wednesday, after government figures showed a slight increase in crude stocks but draws in products.

“We are exporting like crazy,” said one source.

As of 10:12 am CDT, December NYMEX WTI was up $0.54/bbl at $52.44/bbl; November gasoline rose 1.16 cpg to 172.71 cpg; and November diesel increased 3.43 cpg to 182.21 cpg.

Finished gasoline and distillate inventories (diesel and heating oil) showed bullish drawdowns; gasoline and distillate exports are very high.

Heating oil (essentially the same product as diesel) is approximately 20% of the US distillate market, with 80% going to diesel fuel; that market looks tight, according to the data.

Crude oil exports, 1.924 million b/d, have rebounded after the storms, and are strong; domestic crude production increased.

Crude inventories rise 0.9 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending October 20 showed a 0.9 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 457.3 million barrels (“in the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.507 million b/d, up 1.101 million b/d for the week, and 1.003 million b/d higher than the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 640,000 b/d to 8.1 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.6 million b/d, a decrease of 3.2% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 233,000 b/d, down from 690,000 b/d last week; for the same period last year the figure was 834,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 133,000 b/d, up from 107,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 74,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand fell 3.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 19.6 million b/d, down 3.6% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 5.5 million barrels to at 216.9 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range”), 9.1 million barrels below last year. Gasoline demand was 9.3 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 1.6% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 129.2 million barrels (in the lower half of the average range”), down 5.2 million barrels, compared with last week, and 23.1 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.8 million b/d, down 6.5% compared with the same period last year.

Propane/propylene stocks fall 1.2 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 77.6 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), off 1.2 million barrels on the week, but lower by 22.9 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.0 million b/d, up 586,000 b/d, 87.8% of capacity, higher by 3.3 percentage points. In PADD III (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 6.5 percentage points to 90.2%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 4.043 million b/d, up 1.228 million b/d for the week, a very bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.3 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.936 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.8 million b/d, but production was 4.795 million b/d.

Crude exports rise

Exports of crude oil were 1.924 million b/d, up from 1.798 million b/d last week; one year ago the figure was 415,000 b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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