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POST DOE WRAP: Oil falls as crude oil inventories increase

HOUSTON, November 8, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were lower early Wednesday after government figures showed a slight increase in crude stocks.

Domestic crude oil production is very healthy, and distillate and gasoline stocks are low vs. last year; exports fell but are still very strong on a historic basis.

As of 10:02 am CDT, December NYMEX WTI was down $0.18/bbl at $57.17/bbl; December gasoline rose 1.66 cpg to 181.12 cpg; and December diesel decreased 0.27 cpg to 192.20 cpg.

Crude inventories rise 2.2 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending November 3 showed a 2.2 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 457.1 million barrels (“in the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.620 million b/d, up 67,000 for the week, and 928,000 higher than the same period last year.

Imports of crude were off 194,000 b/d to 7.4 million on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.6 million b/d, up 0.6% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 405,000 b/d, down from 540,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 500,000. Distillate imports were 86,000 b/d, down from 137,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 195,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand falls 0.8%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 19.9 million b/d, down 0.8% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 3.3 million barrels to at 209.5 million (“in the lower half of the average range”), 11.4 million below last year. Gasoline demand was 9.3 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 3.0% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 125.6 million barrels (in the lower half of the average range”), down 3.4 million, compared with last week, and 23.0 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.9 million b/d, down 2.9% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 1.1 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 77.2 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), down 1.1 million on the week, and lower by 22.4 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.3 million b/d, up by 290,000, 89.6% of capacity, higher by 1.5% percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 1.9 percentage points to 92.3%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.812 million b/d, down 1.035 for the week, still a very bulllish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.3 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.187 million. Distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, but production was 5.199 million.

Crude exports fall hard

Exports of crude oil were 869,000 b/d, down from 2.133 million last week; one year ago the figure was 410,000. -- Robert Sharp

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