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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures higher after crude inventory increase

HOUSTON, February 1, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were up early Wednesday despite government figures that showed an increase in crude stocks and a build in gasoline.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude inputs were essentially flat and exports of products were healthy.

As of 11:01 am CST, March NYMEX WTI rose $0.25/bbl to $53.06/bbl; March gasoline was up 0.63 cpg to 154155.64 cpg and March diesel was up 1.43 cpg to 164.51/gal.

Crude inventories up 6.5m barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending January 27 showed a 6.5 million barrel increase in crude inventories to 494.8 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.915 million b/d, down 46,000 b/d for the week, and 299,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 480,000 b/d to about 8.3 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.4 million b/d, an increase of 5.3% compared to last year at this time.

Gasoline imports down to 488,000 b/d

Gasoline imports were put at 488,000 b/d, down from 593,000 b/d the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 624,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 236,000 b/d, up from 159,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 191,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 19.3 million b/d, down 1.9% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 3.9 million barrels to 257.1 million (“above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), and 2.7 million barrels over last year. Demand was 8.2 million b/d over the past four weeks, off 5.7% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks rise 1.6m barrels

Distillate stocks were put at 170.7 million barrels (“above the upper limit of the average range”), 1.6 million barrels above last week, and 11.0 million barrels above last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.7 million b/d, up 5.0% compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 62.6 million barrels (still “in the upper half of the average range”), down 5.6 million barrels on the week, and lower by 15.4 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery inputs averaged 15.9 million b/d, down 100,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were off 0.1% on the week at 88.2% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs were down 0.2% to 87.2%.

Exports 267,000 b/d higher

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.728 million b/d, higher by 267,000 b/d for the week, a fairly bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 8.2 million b/d, total gasoline production came in 9.101 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.7 million b/d, but production was 4.677 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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