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​POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX mixed after largest crude stock draw since August

HOUSTON, January 4, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures were mixed early Thursday after government figures that again showed a dramatic decrease in crude stocks, the largest since August 11 and the lowest level since September 18, 2015.

Gulf Coast refinery inputs rose to a record and total product demand was also very strong.

Gasoline stocks have nearly come back into a normal range and even distillates levels look more comfortable.

As of 10:25 am CST, February NYMEX WTI was up $0.29/bbl at $61.92/bbl; February gasoline fell 0.63 cpg to 179.11 cpg; and February diesel decreased 1.05 cpg to 207.75 cpg.

Crude inventories fall 7.4 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending December 29 showed a 7.4 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 424.5 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.782 million b/d, up 2,800 b/d for the week, and 1.012 million b/d higher than the same period last year.

Imports of crude were down 27,000 b/d to 8.0 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.8 million b/d, down 0.1% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 349,000 b/d, down from 388,000 b/d last week; for the same period last year the figure was 722,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 129,000 b/d, down from 239,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 99,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 5%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.6 million b/d, up 5% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 4.8 million barrels to at 233.2 million barrels (“above the upper limit of the average range”), 2.3 million barrels below last year. Gasoline demand was 9.2 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 2.1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 138.8 million barrels (in the upper half of the average range), higher by 8.9 million barrels compared with last week, and 22.9 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, up 5.8% compared with the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 68.0 million barrels (in the middle of the average range), down 0.7 million barrels on the week, but lower by 16.1 million barrels versus last year.

Crude inputs increase

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.6 million b/d, higher by 210,000 b/d. Refinery utilization was at 96.7% of capacity, higher by 1 percentage point. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 1.8 percentage points to 97.9%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.593 million b/d, off 830,000 b/d for the week, still a bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.2 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.682 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, production at 5.592 million b/d.

Crude exports rise 265,000 b/d

Exports of crude oil were 1.475 million b/d, up from 1.210 million b/d last week; one year ago the figure was 686,000 b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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