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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX mixed after another crude stock draw

HOUSTON, January 10, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures were mixed early Wednesday after government figures once again showed a dramatic decrease in crude stocks.

Gulf Coast refinery inputs were lower but still strong and total product demand was very good, as were exports.

Gasoline stocks have increased markedly and even distillates (20% of which is heating oil) levels look more comfortable.

As of 10:09 am CST, February NYMEX WTI was up $0.33/bbl at $63.29/bbl; February gasoline fell 1.01 cpg to 182.61 cpg and February diesel increased 0.42 cpg to 207.04 cpg.

Crude inventories fall 4.9 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending January 5 showed a 4.9 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 419.5 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range,” per the EIA). It's the lowest level since August 2015.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.492 million b/d, off 290,000 b/d for the week, but up 546,000 b/d versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were down 308,000 b/d to 7.7 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.7 million b/d, down 4.3% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 264,000 b/d, down from 349,000 b/d last week; for the same period last year the figure was 683,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 175,000 b/d, down from 129,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 103,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 5.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.6 million b/d, up 5.6% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 4.1 million barrels to at 237.3 million barrels (“near the top of the average range”), 3.2 million barrels below last year. Gasoline demand was 9.1 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 2.5% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 143.1 million barrels (in the middle of the average range”), higher by 4.3 million barrels compared with last week, and 27.0 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.9 million b/d, up 6.8% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 6.3 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 61.7 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range”), down 6.3 million barrels on the week, and lower by 18 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.3 million b/d, lower by 285,000 b/d, 95.3% of capacity, lower by 1.4% percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were down 1.3 percentage points to 96.6%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 3.196 million b/d, up 603,000 b/d for the week, a bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.1 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.525 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, production at 5.291 million b/d.

Crude exports fall 460,000 b/d

Exports of crude oil were 1.015 million b/d, down from 1.475 million b/d last week; one year ago the figure was 727,000 b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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