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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX mixed after another crude stock draw

HOUSTON, January 18, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures were mixed early Thursday after government figures showed a ninth consecuteive weekly drop in crude stocks.

Crude stocks are now at their lowest level since February 2015. Refinery inputs were lower but still strong; total domestic product demand was very good, up 6.2%.

As of 10:22 am CST, February NYMEX WTI was down $0.14/bbl at $63.83/bbl; February gasoline rose 0.20 cpg to 186.04 cpg; and February diesel decreased 1.28 cpg to 205.83 cpg.

Crude inventories fall 6.9 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending January 12 showed a 6.9 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 412.7 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.750 million b/d, up 285,000 b/d for the week, and up 806,000 b/d versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 292,000 b/d to 8.0 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.9 million b/d, down 3.7% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 396,000 b/d, down from 264,000 b/d last week; for the same period last year the figure was 588,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 147,000 b/d, down from 175,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 152,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 6.2%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.5 million b/d, up 6.2% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 3.6 million barrels to at 240.9 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range”), 5.5 million barrels below last year. Gasoline demand was 8.9 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 3.9% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 139.2 million barrels (in the lower half of the average range”), lower by 3.9 million barrels compared with last week, and 29.9 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, up 16.0% compared with the same period last year.

Propane/propylene stocks fall 3.7 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 58.0 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), down 3.7 million barrels on the week, and lower by 14.2 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.9 million b/d, lower by 448,000 b/d, 93.0% of capacity, lower by 2.3 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were down 1.9 percentage points to 94.7%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 3.522 million b/d, up 326,000 b/d for the week, a very bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 8.9 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.710 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, production at 5.076 million b/d.

Crude exports rise 234,000 b/d

Exports of crude oil were 1.249 million b/d, up from 1.015 million lb/d ast week; one year ago the figure was 704,000 b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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