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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX crude fall as stocks build

HOUSTON, January 31, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude fell early Wednesday after government figures showed an dramatic increase in crude stocks. This is the first inventory increase in 11 weeks and the biggest since March 3, 2017.

Gasoline inventories fell with lower refinery inputs; total domestic product demand was very good, up 7.6%.

Exports fell but are still strong.

As of 11:01 am CST, March NYMEX WTI was down $0.21/bbl at $64.29/bbl; March gasoline rose 0.49 cpg to 187.56 cpg; and March diesel decreased 1.07 cpg to 205.95 cpg.

Crude inventories rise 6.8 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending January 26 showed a 6.8 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 418.4 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.918 million b/d, up 41,000 b/d for the week, and up 1.004 million b/d versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were off 380,000 b/d to 8.4 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.0 million b/d, down 4.3% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 509,000 b/d, down from 575,000 b/d last week; for the same period last year the figure was 486,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 584,000 b/d, down from 251,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 236,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 7.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.8 million b/d, up 7.6% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 2.0 million barrels to at 242.0 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range”), 9.2 million barrels below last year. Gasoline demand was 8.8 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 7.1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 137.9 million barrels (in the middle of the average range”), lower by 1.9 million barrels compared with last week, and 32.8 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.2 million b/d, up 13.3% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 0.9 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 53.1 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range”), down 0.9 million barrels on the week, and lower by 9.6 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.0 million b/d, lower by 470,000 b/d, to 88.1% of capacity, lower by 2.8 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were down 6.0 percentage points to 86.6%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.06.9 million b/d, down 484,000 b/d for the week, still a bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 8.8 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.567 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.2 million b/d, production at 4.613 million b/d.

Crude exports rise 354,000 b/d

Exports of crude oil were 1.765 million b/d, up from 1.411 million b/d last week; one year ago the figure was 549,000 b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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