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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX crude falls despite stock decrease.
HOUSTON, April 4, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude fell early Wednesday, despite government figures that showed a significant decrease in crude stocks. NYMEX gasoline and diesel were lower as well.
One market source said the market was reacting to the potential for a trade war.
Total domestic product demand remained very good, up 7.0% on the year, but exports were lower. Weekly gasoline inventories fell again, but are in rough parity to last year.
As of 9.56 am CDT, May NYMEX WTI fell $0.95/bbl to $62.56/bbl; May gasoline dropped 2.07 cpg to 195.34 cpg; and May diesel fell 2.81 cpg to 196.69 cpg.
The market has gone up in recent months. On January 2 NYMEX RBOB settled at 176.31 cpg.
Crude inventories fall 4.6 million barrels
The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended March 30 showed a 4.6 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 425.3 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range,” per the EIA).
Domestic crude oil production was put at 10.460 million b/d, up 27,000 for the week, and up 1.261 million versus the same period last year.
Imports of crude were off 250,000 b/d to 7.9 million on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.7 million b/d, down 3.4% compared with last year at this time.
Total gasoline imports were put at 761,000 b/d, up from 685,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 607,000. Distillate imports were 99,000 b/d, down from 150,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 131,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast (with some exports from the US West Coast, and at times, the East Coast).
Total product demand rises 7%
Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.9 million b/d, up 7% versus the same period last year.
Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 1.1 million barrels to 238.5 million (“in the upper limit of the average range”), and 600,000 below last year. Gasoline demand was 9.3 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 0.4% from the same period last year.
Distillate stocks totaled 129.5 million barrels ("in the lower half of the average range”), lower by 500,000 compared with last week, and 22.9 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4 million b/d, down 4.4% compared with the same period last year.
Propane stocks rise 600,000 barrels
Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 36.2 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), up 600,000 on the week, and lower by 5.3 million versus last year.
Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.9 million b/d, higher by 141,000, to 93% of capacity, higher by 0.7 percentage point. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 1.2 percentage points to 94.3%.
Also, net exports of all products were 2.038 million b/d, off 709,000 for the week, still a moderately bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.
Crude exports rise 597,000 barrels
Exports of crude oil were 2.175 million b/d, up 597,000 from 1.578 million last week; one year ago the figure was 575,000. -- Robert Sharp