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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX crude rises despite stock increase

HOUSTON, April 11, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were up early Wednesday, despite government figures that showed a significant increase in crude stocks.

In some ways the numbers sent a mixed message.

Total domestic product demand remained very good, up 5.0% on the year, and product exports were much higher. Weekly gasoline inventories were roughly flat, but are above last year's levels.

Crude exports were markedly lower, and crude production increased.

As of 9.58 am CDT, May NYMEX WTI rose $1.19/bbl to $66.69/bbl; May gasoline increased 1.88 cpg to 205.97 cpg; and May diesel pushed up 3.52 cpg to 210.00 cpg.

The market has gone up in recent months; for example, on January 2, NYMEX WTI settled at $60.42/bbl. One year ago, the NYMEX settled at $50.38/bbl.

Crude inventories rise 3.3 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending April 6 showed a 3.3 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 428.6 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 10.525 million b/d, up 65,000 b/d for the week, and up 1.290 million b/d versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 752,000 b/d to 8.7 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.9 million b/d, down 1.5% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 655,000 b/d, down from 761,000 b/d last week; for the same period last year the figure was 488,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 125,000 b/d, up from 99,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 118,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast (with some exports from the US West Coast, and at times, the East Coast).

Total product demand rises 5.0%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.7 million b/d, up 5.0% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 500,000 barrels to 238.9 million barrels (“in the upper limit of the average range”), and 2.8 million barrels above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.3 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.6% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 128.4 million barrels (in the lower half of the average range”), down by 1.0 million barrels compared with last week, and 21.8 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, down 3.6% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 400,000 barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 35.8 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), down 400,000 barrels on the week, and lower by 4.5 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.0 million b/d, higher by 83,000 b/d, 0.5 percentage point, to 93.5% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were off 0.2 percentage point to 94.1%.

Also, net exports of all products were 3.120 million b/d, up 1.082 million b/d for the week, a bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.3 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.150 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, production at 5.256 million b/d.

Crude exports fall 970,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 1.205 million b/d, down 970,000 b/d from 1.205 million last week; one year ago the figure was 689,000 b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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