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POST DOE WRAP: Crude, products fall despite oil stock decrease

HOUSTON, May 31, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products fell early Wednesday even as government figures that showed a decrease in crude stocks.

As of 10:40 am CDT, July NYMEX WTI fell $0.83/bbl to $67.38/bbl; July gasoline dropped 0.52 cpg to 216.72 cpg; and July diesel declined 1.43 cpg to 221.12 cpg.

Total domestic product demand remained very good, up 1.3% on the year. Product exports fell, but are still at robust levels. Inventories of gasoline look comfortable, but diesel stockpiles are well below last year.

Crude inventories decline 4.2 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending May 25 showed a 4.2 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 434.5 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 10.769 million b/d, up 44,000 b/d for the week, and up 1.427 million b/d versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were down 528,000 b/d to 7.6 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.7 million b/d, off 5.5% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 959,000 b/d, down from 1.062 million b/d last week; for the same period last year the figure was 703,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 237,000 b/d, up from 24,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 77,000 b/d. Typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast (with some exports from the US West Coast, and at times, the East Coast).

Total product demand rises 1.3%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.7 million b/d, up 1.3% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 500,000 barrels to 234.4 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range”), but 2.6 million barrels below last year. Gasoline demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 0.8% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 114.6 million barrels (in the lower half of the average range”), higher by 600,000 barrels compared with last week, and 32.1 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, down 1.5% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks are up 2 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 43.1 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), higher by 2 million barrels on the week and lower by 4 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.2 million b/d, up 527,000 b/d, to 93.9% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 1.7 percentage points to 93.4%.

Net exports of all products were 1.983 million b/d, off 291,000 b/d for the week, a moderately bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.453 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, production at 5.296 million b/d.

Crude exports rise 431,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.179 million b/d, up 431,000 b/d from last week; one year ago the figure was 1.303 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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