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DOE WRAP: Crude and products mixed after oil stocks rise

HOUSTON, July 18, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were mixed early Wednesday, after government figures showed a steep rise in crude inventories.

As of 10:11 am CDT, August NYMEX WTI was down $0.09/bbl to $67.99/bbl; August gasoline rose 0.38 cpg to 202.99 cpg, and August diesel dropped 0.44 cpg to 206.57 cpg.

The crude increase may be partially explained by an increase in imports from Canada, both into PADD 2 and PADD 1, one source said. Nonetheless, crude stocks are below their 5-year average.

Gasoline stocks fell but look well supplied as the summer winds down; diesel supplies fell also.

Crude inventories rise 5.8 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended July 13 showed a 5.8 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 411.1 million barrels (“2% below the five-year average” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11 million b/d, up 100,000 for the week, and up 1.571 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 1.635 million b/d to 9.1 million on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.5 million b/d, up 8.1% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 657,000 b/d, down from 833,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 591,000. Distillate imports were 140,000 b/d, up from 104,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 126,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand falls 0.3%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.7 million b/d, down 0.3% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 3.2 million barrels to 235.8 million (“2.5% above the five-year average”), and 4.6 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.6 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 121.3 million barrels (“13% below the five-year average”), down 400,000 on the week, and 30.1 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.9 million b/d, off 5.2% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks are up 1.7 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 65.3 million barrels (“10% below the five-year average”), higher by 1.7 million on the week and down 500,000 versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.2 million b/d, off 413,000 to 94.3% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were lower by 2.8% percentage points to 94.2% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 2.687 million b/d, off 1.047 million, still a bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.6 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.292 million; distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, production at 5.174 million.

Crude exports fall 566,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 1.461 million b/d, off 566,000 from last week; one year ago the figure was 728,000. -- Robert Sharp

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