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POST DOE WRAP: Crude and products flat despite crude draw

HOUSTON, July 25, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were mixed early Wednesday after government figures showed a steep fall in crude inventories.

As of 10:03 am CDT, September NYMEX WTI was down $0.21/bbl to $68.31/bbl; Aug gasoline fell 0.08 cpg to 209.48 cpg and August diesel rose 0.12 cpg to 213.38 cpg.

Imports of crude are down and exports are up; gasoline looks well supplied, but diesel inventories have not built significantly.

Crude inventories fall 6.1 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending July 20 showed a 6.1 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 404.9 million barrels (“3% below the five-year average” per the EIA). It was the lowest level since the week ended Feb. 20, 2015.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11 million b/d, essentially flat on the week and up 1.590 million b/d versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were down 1.296 million b/d to 7.8 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.3 million b/d, up 6.1% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 844,000 b/d, up from 657,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 723,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 207,000 b/d, up from 140,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 130,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand falls 0.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.0 million b/d, down 0.6% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 2.3 million barrels to 233.5 million barrels (“4% above the five-year average”), and 3.3 million barrels above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.5% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 121.2 million barrels (“13% below the five-year average”), down 1,000 barrels on the week, and 28.4 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, off 3.9% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks are fall 800,000 barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 64.5 million barrels (“12% below the five-year average”), down 800,000 barrels on the week and 1.5 million barres lower versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.3 million b/d, up 46,000 b/d to 93.8% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were lower by 1.6% percentage points to 92.6% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 2.883 million b/d, up 96,000 b/d on the week, a moderately bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.255 million b/d; distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, production at 5.157 million b/d.

Crude exports fall 566,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.683 million b/d, up 1.221 million b/d from last week; one year ago the figure was 1.030 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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