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POST DOE WRAP: Crude, products fall after oil stock increase

HOUSTON, August 1, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were lower early Wednesday after government figures showed a rise in crude inventories.

As of 10:02 am CDT, September NYMEX WTI was down $0.61/bbl to $68.15/bbl; September gasoline fell 0.75 cpg to 207.30 cpg, and September diesel dropped 2.81 cpg to 210.93 cpg.

Refinery runs, especially in PADD 2, are high. Gasoline stocks drew but the market looks well supplied, diesel inventories showed a bit of a needed build.

Crude exports fell hard, but that is likely an anomaly, according to one market source.

Crude inventories rise 3.8 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended July 27 showed a 3.8 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 408.7 million barrels (“1% below the five-year average” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 10.9 million b/d, down 100,000 on the week and up 1.47 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were off 21,000 b/d to 7.7 million on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8 million b/d, up 0.4% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 752,000 b/d, down from 844,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 549,000. Distillate imports were 157,000 b/d, down from 207,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 108,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 0.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.9 million b/d, up 0.6% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 2.5 million barrels to 231 million (“3% above the five-year average”), and 3.3 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.9% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 124.2 million barrels (“11% below the five-year average”), up 3 million on the week, and 25.2 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.9 million b/d, off 5.9% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks rise 1.8 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 66.3 million barrels (“12% below the five-year average”), up 1.8 million on the week and down 1.3 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.5 million b/d, up 195,000 to 96.1% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were higher by 2 percentage points to 94.6% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 2.732 million b/d, down 151,000 on the week, a moderately bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable. While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.483 million; distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, production at 5.159 million.

Crude exports fall 1.373 million barrels

Exports of crude oil were 1.310 million b/d, off 1.373 million from last week; one year ago the figure was 702,000. -- Robert Sharp

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