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POST DOE WRAP: Crude, products fall hard after products stock gains

HOUSTON, August 8, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were crushed early Wednesday after government figures showed a rise in product inventories.

As of 10:00 am CDT, September NYMEX WTI was down $1.54/bbl to $67.63/bbl; September gasoline fell 5.96 cpg to 204.44 cpg, and September diesel 3.73 cpg to 213.18 cpg.

Crude stocks fell slightly but refinery runs, especially in PADD 2 are high. Gasoline stocks increased and seem well supplied, diesel stocks while low versus last year also showed a build.

Diesel demand is low versus last year.

Crude exports rebounded from last week’s low number.

Crude inventories fall 1.4 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended August 3 showed a 1.4 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 407.4 million barrels (“1% below the five-year average” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 10.8 million b/d, down 100,000 on the week and up 1.377 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 182,000 b/d to 7.9 million on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.1 million b/d, up 1.4% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 935,000 b/d, up from 752,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 1.108 million. Distillate imports were 169,000 b/d, up from 157,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 41,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand falls 0.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.1 million b/d, off 0.6% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 2.9 million barrels to 233.9 million (“4% above the five-year average”), and 2.8 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.7% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 125.4 million barrels (“10% below the five-year average”), up 1.2 million on the week, but 22.3 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4 million b/d, off 8.3% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks rise 100,000 barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 66.4 million barrels (“13% below the five-year average”), up 100,000 on the week and down 1.3 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.6 million b/d, up 118,000 to 96.6% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were higher by 2.7% percentage points to 97.3% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 2.908 million b/d, up 176,000 on the week, a moderately bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.913 million; distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, production at 5.237 million.

Crude exports fall 1.373 million barrels

Exports of crude oil were 1.850 million b/d, off up 540,000 from last week; one year ago the figure was 707,000. -- Robert Sharp

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