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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX crude and products fall hard after crude stocks rise

HOUSTON, August 15, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were crushed early Wednesday after government figures showed a dramatic rise in crude inventories.

As of 10:05 am CDT, September NYMEX WTI was down $2.30/bbl to $64.74/bbl, September gasoline fell 4.63 cpg to 198.78 cpg, and September diesel fell 5.00 cpg to 207.87 cpg.

Crude inputs to refineries averaged 17.981 million b/d last week, an all-time high, as was the gross inputs of 18.243 million b/d.

Gasoline stocks fell, but the market seems well-supplied. Diesel stocks, while low versus last year, showed a build. Crude imports shot higher and exports fell.

Crude inventories rise 6.8 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending August 10 showed a 6.8 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 414.2 million barrels ("1% above the five-year average" per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 10.9 million b/d, up 100,000 b/d on the week and up 1.398 million b/d versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 1.083 million b/d to 9.0 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.1 million b/d, up 0.9% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 663,000 b/d, down from 935,000 b/d last week; for the same period last year the figure was 667,000 b/d.

Distillate imports were 174,000 b/d, up from 169,000 b/d from the prio week; the figure for last year was 167,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand falls 1.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.8 million b/d, off 1.6% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 700,000 barrels to 233.1 million barrels ("5% above the five-year average"), and 2.0 million barrels above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.6 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 1.0% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 129.0 million barrels ("8% below the five-year average"), up 3.6 million barrels on the week, but 19.4 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.9 million b/d, off 8.7% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks rise 3.4 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 69.8 million barrels ("10% below the five-year average"), up 3.4 million barrels on the week and up 500,000 barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 18.0 million b/d, up 383,000 b/d to 98.1% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast), runs were higher by 2.4% percentage points to 99.7% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 3.17 million b/d, up 262,000 b/d on the week, a bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.6 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.234 million b/d; distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d versus production at 5.337 million b/d.

Crude exports fall 258,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 1.592 million b/d, off 258,000 b/d from last week; one year ago the figure was 877,000 b/d.

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