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POST DOE WRAP: Oil gasoline drop after crude inventories rise

HOUSTON, September 26, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were moderately mixed Wednesday, after government figures showed a rise in crude inventories.

As of 10:02 am CDT, November NYMEX WTI was lower by $0.23/bbl at $72.05/bbl; November gasoline fell 0.54 cpg to 205.01 cpg, and November diesel increased 0.06 cpg to 231.03 cpg.

Diesel stocks fell and gasoline stocks drew, but both look well supplied; refinery runs were lower. Recent weather issues have not have materially affected supply or demand.

Crude inventories rise 1.9 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending September 21 showed a 1.9 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 396 million barrels (“2% below the five-year average” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.1 million b/d, up 100,000 on the week and up 1.553 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were off 222,000 b/d on the week to 7.8 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.8 million b/d, up 9.8% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 863,000 b/d, up from 561,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 1.041 million. Distillate imports were 124,000 b/d, down from 141,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 84,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 2.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.8 million b/d, up by 2.6% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 1.5 million barrels to 235.7 million (“8% above the five-year average”), and 18.4 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.5 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 0.4% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 137.9 million barrels (“3% below the five-year average”), off 2.2 million on the week, and 200,000 below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4 million b/d, off 0.7% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks rise 1.6 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 76.4 million barrels (“10% below the five-year average”), up 1.6 million on the week and down 2 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.5 million b/d, down 901,000 b/d to 90.4% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were down 3.2% percentage points to 93.3% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 2.917 million b/d, up 103,000 on the week, a moderately bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.5 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 8.832 million; distillate demand was 4 million b/d, production at 4.995 million.

Crude exports rise 283,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.640 million b/d, higher by 283,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.491 million. -- Robert Sharp

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