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POST DOE WRAP: Oil little changed after 8 million barrel crude stock rise

HOUSTON, October 3, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products reacted tepidly Wednesday, despite government figures that showed a dramatic rise in crude inventories.

As of 10:00 am CDT, November NYMEX WTI was higher by $0.01/bbl at $75.24/bbl; November gasoline fell 0.96 cpg to 205.01 cpg, and November diesel increased 0.58 cpg to 241.34 cpg.

Crude exports fell as well, 917,000 barrels lower, a figure that is below last year.

Diesel and gasoline stocks drew, but both look well supplied; refinery runs were essentially flat.

Crude inventories rise 8 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending September 28 showed an 8 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 404 million barrels (“at the five-year average” per the EIA). It was the biggest one-week gain since the week ended March 3, 2017.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.1 million b/d, flat on the week but up 1.539 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 163,000 b/d on the week to 8 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.8 million b/d, up 10.2% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 713,000 b/d, down from 863,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 862,000. Distillate imports were 162,000 b/d, up from 124,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 72,000 (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 1.1%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.5 million b/d, up by 1.1% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were lower by 500,000 barrels to 235.2 million (“7% above the five-year average”), and 16.3 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.3 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 1.5% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 136.1 million barrels (“3% below the five-year average”), off 1.8 million on the week, and 700,000 above last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.9 million b/d, off 2.9% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks rise 1.6 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 78.7 million barrels (“8% below the five-year average”), up 2.4 million on the week and down 700,000 versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.6 million b/d, up 77,000 b/d to 90.4% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 0.7 percentage point to 94% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 3.177 million b/d, up 260,000 on the week, a bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.3 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.950 million; distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, production at 5.024 million.

Crude exports rise 917,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 1.723 million b/d, lower by 917,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.984 million. -- Robert Sharp

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