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POST DOE WRAP: Crude, products push higher despite oil stock gain

HOUSTON, October 24, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products increased Wednesday, despite government figures that showed a significant rise in crude inventories.

As of 9:59 am CDT, December NYMEX WTI was higher by $0.51/bbl at $66.94/bbl; December gasoline rose 0.87 cpg to 184.31 cpg, and November diesel increased 0.51 cpg to 225.50 cpg.

Gasoline stocks were down on the week; while diesel decreased its stocks are above last year. Exports of products look very good, a bullish sign.

Crude inventories rise 6.3 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended October 19 showed a 6.3 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 422.8 million barrels (“2% above the five-year average” per the EIA).

Crude exports rise 398,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.180 million b/d, higher by 398,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.924 million.

 

Domestic crude oil production was put at 10.9 million b/d, essentially flat on the week and up 1.393 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 63,000 b/d on the week to 7.7 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.7 million b/d, up 0.7% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 331,000 b/d, down from 394,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 233,000. Distillate imports were 136,000 b/d, up from 128,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 120,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 3.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.4 million b/d, up by 3.6% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 4.8 million barrels to 229.3 million (“6% above the five-year average”), and 12.5 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.2 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 1.3% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 130.4 million barrels (“4% below the five-year average”), off 2.3 million on the week, and 1.1 million above last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, up 7% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 300,000 barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 82 million barrels (“4% below the five-year average”), down 300,000 on the week and up 4.4 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.3 million b/d, off 48,000 b/d to 89.2% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were down 1 percentage point to 95.9% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 3.643 million b/d, down 21,000 on the week, still a very bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.2 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.028 million; distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, production at 4.960 million.

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