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NGLs Week is PetroChem Wire's comprehensive summary of price trends, upstream and downstream costs, operations news and supply/demand forecasts. The report contains everything you'll need to understand what's happening in the NGL markets.

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DOE WRAP: Oil drops after seventh straight weekly inventory gain

HOUSTON, November 7, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude oil fell Wednesday after government figures showed a significant rise in oil and gasoline inventories.

As of 9:53 am CST, December NYMEX WTI was lower by $0.33/bbl at $61.89/bbl; December gasoline fell 2.26 cpg to 167.19 cpg, and December diesel increased 2.95 cpg to 221.78 cpg.

Tuesday’s crude NYMEX close was the lowest since April 6. Today’s crude stocks are the highest since June 8, but still 5.8 million below last year.

Gasoline stocks were 8% higher than their 5-year average, but diesel was 6% below its 5-year average. Exports of crude and products remain very good.

Crude inventories rise 5.8 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended November 2 showed a 5.8 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 431.8 million barrels (“2% above the five-year average” per the EIA). It was the seventh straight weekly gain.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.6 million b/d, up 400,000 on the week and up 1.980 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 195,000 b/d on the week to 7.5 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.5 million b/d, off 1.2% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 591,000 b/d, up from 363,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 405,000. Distillate imports were 166,000 b/d, up from 141,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 86,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 4%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.7 million b/d, up 4% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 1.9 million barrels to 228 million (“8% above the five-year average”), and 18.5 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.2 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 1.4% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 122.9 million barrels (“6% below the five-year average”), off 3.5 million on the week, and 2.7 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, up 6.1% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks rise 1.5 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 84.5 million barrels (“at the five-year average”), up 1.5 million on the week and 7.3 million barrels higher versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.4 million b/d, off 9,000 b/d to 90% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 0.2 percentage point to 96.7% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 3.028 million b/d, down 627,000 on the week, still a very bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.2 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.714 million; distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, production at 4.963 million.

Crude exports fall 80,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.805 million b/d, lower by 80,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 869,000. -- Robert Sharp

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