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NGLs Week is PetroChem Wire's comprehensive summary of price trends, upstream and downstream costs, operations news and supply/demand forecasts. The report contains everything you'll need to understand what's happening in the NGL markets.

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DOE WRAP: Oil rises for eighth week amid surge in crude supplies

HOUSTON, November 15, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude rose Thursday, despite government figures that showed a dramatic rise in crude inventories.

December NYMEX WTI rose $0.21/bbl to $56.46/bbl; December gasoline fell 0.40 cpg to 155.66 cpg, and December diesel decreased 2.18 cpg to 207.41 cpg.

While commercial crude stocks built, they are still higher than last year at this time, by 16.9 million barrels.

Gasoline stocks were 7% higher than their 5-year average, but diesel was 8% below its 5-year average. Exports of crude and products remain very good.

Crude inventories rise 10.3 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending November 9 showed a 10.3 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 442.1 million barrels (“5% above the five-year average” per the EIA). Inventories have gained for eight straight weeks and are at the highest level since the week ended December 8, 2017. The past week's increase was the biggest since February 3, 2017.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.7 million b/d, up 400,000 on the week and up 2.055 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were off 87,000 b/d on the week to 7.5 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.5 million b/d, off 3.1% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 253,000 b/d, off from 591,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 349,000. Distillate imports were 305,000 b/d, up from 166,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 161,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 6.2%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.3 million b/d, up 6.2% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 1.4 million barrels to 226.6 million (“7% above the five-year average”), and 16.2 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.2 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 1.5% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 119.3 million barrels (“8% below the five-year average”), off 3.6 million on the week, and 5.5 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.3 million b/d, up 7.6% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 800,000 barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 83.8 million barrels (“at the five-year average”), lower by 800,000 on the week and up 9.1 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.4 million b/d, up 24,000 b/d to 90.1% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were down 2.9% percentage points to 93.8% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 2.764 million b/d, down 264,000 on the week, still a very bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.2 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 1.056 million; distillate demand was 4.3 million b/d, production at 4.993 million.

Crude exports fall 355,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.050 million b/d, lower by 355,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.129 million. -- Robert Sharp

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