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POST DOE WRAP: Crude, products up after oil stock draw

HOUSTON, December 12, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were higher Wednesday after government figures showed a moderate draw in oil inventories.

As of 10:02 CST, January NYMEX WTI was higher by $0.44/bbl at $52.49/bbl; January gasoline rose 0.94 cpg to 144.92 cpg, and January diesel increased 3.10 cpg to 187.81 cpg.

While commercial crude stocks fell, they are in rough parity with last year.

Gasoline stocks were 3% higher than their 5-year average, but diesel was 8% below its 5-year average. Exports of crude and products remain very good.

Crude inventories fall 1.2 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending December 7 showed a 1.2 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 442 million barrels (“7% above the five-year average” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.6 million b/d, off 100,000 on the week and up 1.82 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 174,000 b/d on the week to 7.5 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.6 million b/d, up 1.9% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 525,000 b/d, up from 189,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 483,000. Distillate imports were 144,000 b/d, down from 436,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 149,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 5.5%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.9 million b/d, up 5.5% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 2.1 million barrels to 228.3 million (“3% above the five-year average”), and 1.8 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.1 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 124.1 million barrels (“8% below the five-year average”), off 1.5 million on the week, and 3.9 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, up 1.8% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 3.2 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 76.6 million barrels (“5% below the five-year average”), lower by 3.2 million on the week and up 1.9 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.4 million b/d, down 51,000 b/d to 95.1% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were down 0.9% percentage points to 95.6% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 3.797 million b/d, down 430,000 on the week, still a very bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.1 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.457 million; distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, production at 5.545 million.

Crude exports fall 929,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.274 million b/d, lower by 929,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.086 million. -- Robert Sharp

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