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POST DOE WRAP: Crude steady amid little change in supplies

HOUSTON, December 28, 2018 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude was little changed Friday, after government figures showed no change in crude inventories.

As of 10:20 CST, February NYMEX WTI was higher by $0.16/bbl at $48.00/bbl; February gasoline fell 0.29 cpg to 128.21 cpg, and February diesel decreased 1.62 cpg to 165.73 cpg.

Total product demand was up 3.4% on the year.

Exports of crude and products remain very good, and refinery inputs, especially in the Gulf Coast, are high.

Crude inventories are unchanged

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending December 21 showed essentially no change in commercial crude inventories at 441.4 million barrels (“7% above the five-year average” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.7 million b/d, up 100,000 on the week and up 1.946 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 233,000 b/d on the week to 7.7 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.4 million b/d, down 2.3% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 509,000 b/d, down from 595,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 388,000. Distillate imports were 204,000 b/d, up from 139,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 239,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 3.4%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.3 million b/d, up 3.4% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 3 million barrels to 233.1 million (“4% above the five-year average”), and 4.7 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.1 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 1.1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 119.9 million barrels (“11% below the five-year average”), essentially unchanged on the week, and 10 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.4 million b/d, up 7.7% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 1 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 72.2 million barrels (“5% below the five-year average”), lower by 1 million on the week and up 3.6 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.4 million b/d, down 58,000 b/d to 95.1% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 0.1% percentage points to 97.9% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 4.045 million b/d, up 405,000 on the week, a very bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.1 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.144 million; distillate demand was 4.4 million b/d, production at 5.444 million.

Crude exports rise 304,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.629 million b/d, higher by 304,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.210 million. -- Robert Sharp

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