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POST DOE WRAP: Crude, products up with oil stocks flat

HOUSTON, January 4, 2019 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were up Friday, amid government figures that showed no change in crude inventories.

As of 10:30 am CST, February NYMEX WTI was higher by $1.23/bbl at $48.32/bbl; February gasoline rose 1.46 cpg to 146.31 cpg, and February diesel increased 2.86 cpg to 177.06 cpg.

Refinery runs are high, especially in the Gulf Coast. Diesel inventories have increased significantly.

Crude inventories are unchanged

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended December 28 showed essentially no change in commercial crude inventories at 441.4 million barrels (“8% above the five-year average” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.7 million b/d, also essentially unchanged for the week and up 1.918 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were down 264,000 b/d on the week to 7.4 million. Over the past four weeks crude imports averaged 7.5 million b/d, down 4.1% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 314,000 b/d, down from 509,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 349,000. Distillate imports were 195,000 b/d, down from 204,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 129,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the East Coast and exports from the Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 1.6%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.9 million b/d, up 1.6% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 6.9 million barrels to 239.9 million (“5% above the five-year average”), and 6.8 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9.1 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 1.1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 129.4 million barrels (“7% below the five-year average”), 9.5 million higher on the week, and 9.4 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.2 million b/d, up 3.6% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 1.6 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 70.7 million barrels (“5% below the five-year average”), lower by 1.6 million on the week and 2.7 million higher versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.8 million b/d, up 410,000 b/d to 97.2% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs gained 1.5 percentage points to 99.4% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 3.763 million b/d, down 282,000 on the week, but still a very bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.1 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.533 million; distillate demand was 4.2 million b/d, production at 5.591 million.

Crude exports drop 772,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.237 million b/d, lower by 722,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.475 million. -- Robert Sharp

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