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DOE WRAP: Crude, products mixed after oil supplies drop

HOUSTON, January 16, 2019 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were mixed Friday after government figures showed a small decrease in crude inventories.

As of 10:00 am CST, February NYMEX WTI was lower by $0.31 at $51.80/bbl; February gasoline fell 2.25 cents to 138.89 cpg, and February diesel increased 0.56 cent to 187.78 cpg.

Refinery runs fell overall, fairly hard in the Gulf Coast; gasoline and diesel stocks built nonetheless.

Demand is lower for all products.

Crude inventories are down 2.7 million

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended January 11 showed a 2.7 million barrel drop in commercial crude inventories to 437.1 million barrels (“8% above the five-year average” per the EIA) It was the sixth decrease in the past seven weeks.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.9 million b/d, up 200,000 for the week and 2.15 million higher versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were down 319,000 b/d on the week to 7.5 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.6 million b/d, down 3.6% compared with last year's levels at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 377,000 b/d, down from 550,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 390,000. Distillate imports were 378,000 b/d, up from 261,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 137,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand falls 2.1%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.1 million b/d, off 2.1% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 7.5 million barrels to 255.6 million (“6% above the five-year average”), and 14.6 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 8.8 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 143 million barrels (“7% below the five-year average”), 3 million up on the week, and 3.8 million above last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.7 million b/d, down 8.9% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 1.2 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 67.5 million barrels (“1% above the five-year average”), lower by 1.2 million on the week and up 9.5 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17.2 million b/d, lower by 343,000 b/d to 94.6% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were off 3.5% percentage points to 94.2% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 2.324 million b/d, down 463,000 on the week, a moderately bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 8.8 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.584 million; distillate production was at 5.412 million, higher than the 3.7 million barrel demand number.

Crude exports drop 901,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.966 million b/d, lower by 901,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.249 million. -- Robert Sharp

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