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DOE WRAP: Crude, products are up despite crude build

HOUSTON, January 24, 2019 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products were higher Thursday despite government figures that showed a build in crude inventories.

As of 10:55 am CST, March NYMEX WTI was higher by $0.49/bbl at $53.11/bbl; March gasoline rose 0.68 cpg to 140.85 cpg, and March diesel increased 0.38 cpg to 188.72 cpg.

Refinery runs fell overall, fairly hard in the Gulf Coast; gasoline stocks built nonetheless.

Demand was lower for all products.

Crude inventories are up 8 million

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended January 18 showed an 8 million barrel rise in commercial crude inventories to 445 million barrels (“9% above the five-year average” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.9 million b/d, flat for the week and up 2.02 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 664,000 b/d on the week to 8.2 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.7 million b/d, down 2.1% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 561,000 b/d, up from 377,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 575,000. Distillate imports were 355,000 b/d, down from 378,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 251,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand falls 1.1%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.3 million b/d, off 1.1% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 4.1 million barrels to 259.6 million (“6% above the five-year average”), and 15.6 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 8.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 142.4 million barrels (“2% below the five-year average”), 600,000 lower on the week, and 2.6 million above last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.8 million b/d, off 3.5% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 3.7 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 63.8 million barrels (“2% above the five-year average”), lower by 3.7 million on the week and up 5.7 million versus last year.

Nonfuel use propylene supplies rose to a record 5.691 million barrels.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 17 million b/d, lower by 174,000 b/d to 92.9% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were off 2.1 percentage points to 92.1% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 2.798 million b/d, up 474,000 on the week, a moderately bullish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 8.7 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.604 million; distillate demand was 3.8 million b/d, production at 5.204 million.

Crude exports drop 931,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.035 million b/d, lower by 931,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.411 million. -- Robert Sharp

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