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DOE WRAP: NYMEX oil prices drop after inventories climb

HOUSTON, February 6, 2019 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude oil declined after government figures that showed a modest build in inventories.

As of 9:59 am CST, March NYMEX WTI was lower by $0.28/bbl at $53.38/bbl; March gasoline rose 0.49 cpg to 143.08 cpg, and March diesel decreased 0.15 cpg to 189.60 cpg.

Refinery runs again rose slightly overall; distillate demand kicked up with the cold weather.

Exports of finished products were lower, but crude exports were higher.

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended February 1 showed a 1.3 million barrel rise in commercial crude inventories to 447.2 million barrels (“6% above the five-year average” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 11.9 million b/d, flat for the week and up 1.649 million versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 63,000 b/d on the week to 7.1 million. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.5 million b/d, down 7.3% compared with last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 625,000 b/d, up from 523,000 last week; for the same period last year the figure was 746,000. Distillate imports were 459,000 b/d, up from 135,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 313,000 b/d (typically the US imports the greatest volume of products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand rises 2%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.2 million b/d, up 2% versus the same time last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were higher by 500,000 barrels to 257.9 million (“5% above the five-year average”), and 12.4 million above last year. Gasoline demand was 9 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 1.6% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 139 million barrels (“4% below the five-year average”), 2.3 million lower on the week, and 2.8 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.5 million b/d, up 6.4% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 2.6 million barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 57.5 million barrels (“4% above the five-year average”), lower by 2.6 million on the week and up 8.6 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 16.6 million b/d, higher by 170,000 b/d to 90.7% of capacity. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 0.5 percentage point to 90.9% of capacity.

Net exports of all products were 2.39 million b/d, lower by 1.040 million on the week, a bearish number.

The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable: while domestic gasoline demand was put at 9 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.856 million; distillate demand was 4.5 million b/d, and production was at 5.121 million.

Crude exports increase 926,000 barrels

Exports of crude oil were 2.870 million b/d, higher by 926,000 on the week; one year ago the figure was 1.287 million. -- Robert Sharp

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