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POST DOE WRAP: Crude stocks and production drop, NYMEX prices mixed

HOUSTON, June 2, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Thursday after government figures showed a decrease in crude stocks and production.

The US, however, remains very long in crude, gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes decreased nationwide. Gasoline and diesel demand is good, and export volumes rebounded.

As of 10:21 am CST, July NYMEX WTI fell $0.34/bbl to $48.67/bbl, July gasoline rose 0.30 cpg to 161.83 cpg and July diesel rose 0.86 cpg to 150.75 cpg.

Crude inventories down

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending May 27 showed a 1.4 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 535.7 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.735 million b/d, down 32,000 b/d for the week, and 851,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.

This is the 15th week in the past 16 that crude production has fallen. Still, those inventories are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA.

Imports of crude were up 524,000 b/d to 7.8 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.6 million b/d, an increase of 8.3% compared to last year at this time.

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.4 million b/d, up 2.2% versus the same period last year.

Gasoline inventories fall

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 1.5 million barrels to 238.6 million barrels (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 4.0% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks fell 1.3 million barrels to 149.6 million barrels (“well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was up 0.6% to 4.1 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were up 1.3 million barrels to 75.4 million barrels, 1.7 million barrel below last year.

Refinery runs lower

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.2 million b/d, down 73,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were up 0.1% on the week, put at 89.8% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs fell 0.8% to 90.9%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 1.67 million b/d, up 691,000 b/d for the week, a fairly bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 9.916 million b/d. Distillate demand is 4.1 million b/d, but production was 4.757 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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