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POST DOE WRAP: Crude stocks fall, NYMEX increases

HOUSTON, June 8, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were up early Wednesday after government figures showed a decrease in crude stocks despite a small increase in production week on week.

The US remains very long in crude, gasoline, and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes increased nationwide. Gasoline and diesel demand remains robust, but export volumes fell.

As of 9:55 am CST, July NYMEX WTI rose $0.88/bbl to $51.24/bbl, July gasoline rose 1.68 cpg to 160.39 cpg, and July diesel rose 2.66 cpg to 156.81 cpg.

Crude inventories fall

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending June 3 showed a 3.2 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 532.5 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.745 million b/d, up 10,000 b/d for the week, but 865,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.

This is the second week in the past seventeen that crude production has risen. Still, those inventories are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA.

Imports of crude were down 134,000 b/d to 7.7 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.6 million b/d, an increase of 9.5% compared to last year at this time.

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.3 million b/d, up 3.1% versus the same period last year.

Gasoline inventories rise

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 1.0 million barrels to 239.6 million (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Demand was 9.6 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 2.6% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks rose 1.8 million barrels to 151.4 million barrels (“well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was up 0.4% to 4.0 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were up 1.9 million barrels to 77.3 million, 1.5 million below last year.

Refinery runs up

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million b/d, up 211,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were up 1.1% on the week, put at 90.9% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs rose 1.1% to 92.0%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 1.4 million b/d, down 267,000 b/d for the week, a bearish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.6 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 10.122 million b/d. Distillate demand is 4.0 million b/d, but production was 4.838 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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