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POST DOE WRAP: Crude stocks fall, NYMEX oil drops
HOUSTON, June 15, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were down early Wednesday after government figures showed a decrease in crude stocks and a decrese in production week on week.
The US remains very long in crude, gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes fell nationwide. Gasoline and diesel demand remains robust, but export volumes were bearish.
As of 9:48 am CST, July NYMEX WTI fell $0.13/bbl to $48.36/bbl, July gasoline fell 1.77 cpg to 150.40 cpg and July diesel was down 0.77 cpg to 149.43 cpg.
Crude inventories are down
The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending June 10 showed a 0.9 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 531.5 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.716 million b/d, down 29,000 b/d for the week, and 873,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.
This is the sixteenth week in the past eighteen that crude production has fallen (still those inventories are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA).
Imports of crude were down 83,000 b/d to 7.6 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.6 million b/d, an increase of 9.8% compared to last year at this time.
Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.4 million b/d, up 3.6% versus the same period last year.
Gasoline inventories rise
Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 2.6 million barrels to 237 million (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Demand was 9.6 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 2.9% from the same period last year.
Distillate stocks rose 0.8 million barrels to 152.2 million barrels (“well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was down 2.6% to 3.8 million b/d compared to the same period last year.
Propane/propylene inventories on the week were up 1.1 million barrels to 78.4 million, 2.3 million below last year.
Refinery runs increase
Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million b/d. down 100,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were up 0.7% on the week, put at 90.2% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs fell 1.3% to 90.7%.
Also, net exports of all products was at 1.3 million b/d, down 100,000 b/d for the week, a clearly bearish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.
While gasoline demand was put at 9.6 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 9.707 million b/d. Distillate demand is 4.0 million b/d, but production was 4.8984 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp
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