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POST DOE WRAP: Crude stocks fall, NYMEX crude rises
HOUSTON, June 29, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were up early Wednesday aftere government figures showed a decrease in crude stocks and production week on week.
The US remains very long in crude, gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes rose nationwide. Gasoline and diesel demand remains robust, but export volumes are fairly bearish.
As of 9:57 am CST, August NYMEX WTI rose $1.16/bbl to $49.01/bbl; July gasoline rose 0.21 cpg to 151.21 cpg and July diesel was up 4.13 cpg to 151.24 cpg.
Crude inventories fall
The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending June 24 showed a 4.1 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 526.6 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.622 million b/d, down 55,000 b/d for the week, and 973,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.
This is the 18th week in the past 20 that crude production has fallen (still inventories are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA).
Imports of crude were down 817,000 b/d to 7.6 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.8 million b/d, an increase of 12% compared to last year at this time.
Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.4 million b/d, up 2% versus the same period last year.
Gasoline inventories rise
Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 1.4 million barrels to 239 million barrels (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 1.8% from the same period last year.
Distillate stocks fell 1.8 million barrels to 150.5 million barrels (“well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was down 2.9% to 3.8 million b/d compared to the same period last year.
Propane/propylene inventories on the week were up 2.5 million barrels to 82.1 million barrels, 1.5 million barrels below last year.
Refinery runs up
Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.7 million b/d, up 190,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were up 1.7% on the week, put at 93% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs rose 0.8% to 92.3%.
Also, net exports of all products were put at 0.983 million b/d, down 464,000 b/d for the week, a bearish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.
While gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 9.959 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.8 million b/d, but production was 5.021 million. -- Robert Sharp