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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures rise after crude inventory decrease

HOUSTON, June 21, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices rose Wednesday after government figures showed a decrease in crude stocks.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline, and diesel. Refinery crude inputs nationwide were lower and exports of products decreased; domestic gasoline consumption remained below last year.

Gasoline stocks were 5.4 million barrels over last year and 24.6 million over 2015.

As of 9:55 am am CDT, August NYMEX WTI rose $0.36/bbl to $43.81/bbl; August gasoline rose 1.32 cents to 143.20 cpg ; and August diesel increased 0.44 cpg to 140.66 cpg.

Crude inventories are down

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending June 16 showed a 2.5 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 509.1 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA). This is the tenth week in the last eleven in which inventories have decreased.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.350 million b/d, up 20,000 for the week, and 673,000 higher versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were down 149,000 b/d to about 7.9 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.1 million b/d, an increase of 2.0% compared to last year at this time.

Gasoline imports increase

Total gasoline imports were put at 909,000 b/d, up from 574,000 the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 876,000. Distillate imports were 87,000 b/d, up from 61,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 146,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.2 million b/d, down by 0.4% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 0.6 million barrels to 241.9 million (“above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 4.2 million above last year. Demand was 9.6 million b/d over the past four weeks, off 1.2% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks increase

Distillate stocks totaled 152.5 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range”), up 1.1 million compared with last week, and 0.2 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.9 million b/d, up 4.0% compared with the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 54.5 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), up 1.8 million on the week, and lower by 25.0 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs averaged 17.2 million b/d, down 104,000 b/d, to 94.0% of capacity, down 0.4 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were off 0.6 percentage points to 95.8%.

Exports are lower

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.114 million b/d, down 543,000 for the week, a bearish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.6 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.163 million. Distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, but production was 5.251 million. -- Robert Sharp

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