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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures rise after crude inventory increase

HOUSTON, June 28, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices rose Wednesday despite government figures that showed a slight increase in crude stocks.

The US remains long in crude, gasolineand diesel. Refinery crude inputs nationwide were lower, but exports of products increased dramatically. Domestic gasoline consumption remained below last year in what looks to be a permanent funk.

Gasoline stocks were 2 million barrels over last year's level and 24.3 million over 2015.

As of 9:56 am am CDT, August NYMEX WTI was up $0.44/bbl to $44.68/bbl; August gasoline rose 0.47 to 143.84 cpg and August diesel increased 1.91 cpg to 143.84 cpg.

Crude inventories up 0.1m barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending June 23 showed a 0.1 million barrel increase in crude inventories to 509.2 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA). This is only the second week in the last 12 in which inventories have increased.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.250 million b/d, off 100,000 b/d for the week, but 628,000 b/d higher versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 140,000 b/d to about 8.0 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.1 million b/d, an increase of 3.0% compared to last year at this time.

Gasoline imports fall to 571,000 b/d

Total gasoline imports were put at 571,000 b/d, down from 909,000 the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 904,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 139,000 b/d, up from 87,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 25,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 19.9 million b/d, down by 2.7% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 0.9 million barrels to 241 million barrels (“above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 2.0 million barrels above last year. Demand was 9.5 million b/d over the past four weeks, off 2.4% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks fall 0.2m barrels

Distillate stocks totaled 152.3 million barrels (“above the upper limit of the average range”), off 0.2 million barrels compared with last week, and 1.8 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 3.9 million b/d, up 4.0% compared with the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 58.5 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), up 3.9 million barrels on the week, and lower by 23.6 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs averaged 16.9 million b/d, down 262,000 b/d, to 92.5% of capacity, down 1.5 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were off 2.1 percentage points to 93.7%.

Exports are higher by 1.141m b/d

Also, net exports of all products were put 3.255 million b/d, up 1.141 million b/d for the week, a bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.5 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.366 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, but production was 5.244 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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