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POST DOE WRAP: Crude stocks fall, but NYMEX crude drops as well

HOUSTON, July 7, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were down early Thursday despite government figures that showed again a decrease in crude stocks and a decrease in production week on week.

The US remains very long in crude, gasoline, and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes fell nationwide. Gasoline and diesel demand remains robust, and export volumes improved.

As of 10:27 am CST, August NYMEX WTI fell $0.43/bbl to $47/bbl; August gasoline fell 1.61 cpg to 141.68 cpg, and August diesel fell 1.52 cpg to 145.48 cpg.

Crude inventories are down again

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended July 1 showed a 2.2 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 524.4 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.428 million b/d, down 194,000 b/d for the week, and 1.176 million b/d lower versus the same period last year.

This is the 19th week in the past 21 that crude production has fallen (still inventories are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA).

Imports of crude were up 808,000 b/d to 8.4 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.0 million b/d, an increase of 11.6% compared to last year at this time.

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.5 million b/d, up 3.0% versus the same period last year.

Gasoline inventories fall

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 0.1 million barrels to 238.9 million (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Demand was 9.8 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 2.5% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks fell 1.6 million barrels to 148.9 million (“well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was up 1.5% to 3.9 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were up 2.7 million barrels to 84.8 million, 0.9 million below last year.

Refinery runs are down slightly

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.7 million b/d, down 8,000 b/d compared with the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were down 0.5% on the week at 92.5% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs down 0.3% to 92.0%.

Net exports of all products were put at 1.689 million b/d, up 706.000 for the week, a fairly bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.8 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 10.018 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, but production was 4.952 million. -- Robert Sharp

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