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POST DOE WRAP: Crude stocks fall again, but NYMEX crude drops

HOUSTON, July 13, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were down early Wednesday after government figures showed a decrease in crude stocks but an increase in production week on week; crude production fell versus last year.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes fell nationwide. Gasoline and diesel demand remains robust, and export volumes were essentially steady.

As of 10:09 am CST, August NYMEX WTI fell $1.62/bbl to $45.18/bbl; August gasoline decreased 5.04 cpg to 137.92 cpg, and August diesel was down 6.91 cpg to 139.41 cpg.

Crude inventories down again

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending July 1 showed a 2.5 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 521.8 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.485 million b/d, up 57,000 b/d for the week, but 1.077 million b/d lower versus the same period last year.

This is the first week in recent memory that crude production has risen on a week-to-week basis (still inventories are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA).

Imports of crude were down 522,000 b/d to 7.8 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.1 million b/d, an increase of 11.2 % compared to last year at this time.

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.2 million b/d, up 1.4% versus the same period last year.

Gasoline inventories rise

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 1.2 million barrels to 240.1million (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 1.6% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks rose 4.1 million barrels to 153.0 million (“well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was up 1.8% to 3.8 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were up 2.6 million barrels to 87.4 million, flat to last year.

Refinery runs fall slightly

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.5 million b/d, down 143,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were down 0.2% on the week, put at 92.3% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs up 0.6% to 92.6%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 1.621 million b/d, up 68,000 for the week, a faintly bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 10.218 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, but production was 5.034 million.While gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 10.218 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, but production was 5.034 million. -- Robert Sharp

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