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POST DOE WRAP: Crude stocks fall again, NYMEX mixed

HOUSTON, July 20, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Wednesday after government figures showed a decrease in crude stocks, but a modest increase in production week on week. Crude production fell compared to last year.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes rose nationwide. Domestic gasoline demand remains robust, but export volumes of products were bearish.

As of 9:46 am CST, August NYMEX WTI fell $0.29/bbl to $44.36/bbl; August gasoline softened 2.48 cpg to 135.09 cpg, but August diesel rose 0.76 cpg to 139.17 cpg.

Crude inventories fall

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending July 15 showed a 2.3 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 519.5 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.494 million b/d, up 9,000 b/d for the week, but 1.064 million b/d lower versus the same period last year.

This is the second week in a row that crude production has risen on a week-to-week basis (inventories still are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA).

Imports of crude were down 293,000 b/d to 8.1 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8 million b/d, an increase of 5.9% compared to last year at this time.

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.3 million b/d, up 1.8% versus the same period last year.

Gasoline inventories rise

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 0.9 million barrels to 241 million (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 1.3% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks fell 0.2 million barrels to 152.8 million (“well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was down 0.7% to 3.8 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were up 0.1 million barrels to 87.4 million barrels, down 0.3 million barrels versus last year.

Refinery runs up slightly

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million b/d. up 319,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were up 0.9% on the week, put at 93.2% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs were up 1.0% to 93.6%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 1.448 million b/d, down 173,000 b/d for the week, a bearish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 10.050 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.9 million b/d, but production was 5.004 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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