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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures rise after crude and gasoline inventory decrease
HOUSTON, July 6, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices spiked Thursday after government figures showed a significant decrease in crude stocks.
The US remains long in crude, gasoline and diesel, but for the first time in recent memory the market felt somewhat bullish.
Refinery crude inputs nationwide were higher, but exports of products decreased dramatically. Domestic gasoline consumption remained below last year, in what looks to be a permanent funk.
Nonetheless gasoline inventories drew. Gasoline stocks were 1.6 million barrels below last year and 19.3 million barrels over 2015.
As of 10:24 am CDT, August NYMEX WTI was up $1.07/bbl to $46.20/bbl; August gasoline rose 2.20 to 152.44 cpg and August diesel increased 2.33 cpg to 150.18cpg.
Crude inventories down 6.3m barrels
The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending June 30 showed a 6.3 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 502.9 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA). This is the 11th week in the last 13 in which inventories have decreased.
Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.338 million b/d, up 88,000 b/d for the week, and 910,000 b/d higher versus the same period last year.
Imports of crude were down 274,000 b/d to about 7.7 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.9 million b/d, a decrease of 1.0% compared to last year at this time.
Gasoline imports increase to 739,000 b/d
Total gasoline imports were put at 739,000 b/d, up from 571,000 b/d the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 765,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 108,000 b/d, up from 139,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 61,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).
Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.6 million b/d, up by 0.5% versus the same period last year.
Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 3.7 million barrels to 237.3 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 1.6 million barrels below last year. Demand was 9.6 million b/d over the past four weeks, off 1.6% from the same period last year.
Distillate stocks fall 1.9m barrels
Distillate stocks totaled 150.4 million barrels (“above the upper limit of the average range”), off 1.9 million barrels compared with last week, and 1.5 million barrels above last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, up 5.8% compared with the same period last year.
Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 60.6 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), up 2.1 million barrels on the week, and lower by 24.2 million barrels versus last year.
Total US refinery crude inputs averaged 17.1 million b/d, higher by 231,000 b/d, to 93.6% of capacity, up 1.1 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 1.4 percentage points to 95.1%.
Exports lower by 1.1498 million b/d
Net exports of all products were put 2.057 million b/d, down 1.1498 million for the week, a moderately bearish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.
While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.6 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.365 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, but production was 5.1 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp