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POST DOE WRAP: Futures mixed after crude, gasoline supplies drop

HOUSTON, July 26, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed Wednesday after government figures showed again a significant decrease in crude stocks.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline, and diesel, but it may appears that the market has become bullish.

As of 10:16 am CDT, September NYMEX WTI was up $0.32/bbl to $48.21/bbl; September gasoline rose 0.01 cpg to 157.19 cpg; and September diesel gained 1.03 cpg to 158.46 cpg.

Crude exports are among the highest ever; total domestic product demand was up sharply.

Refinery crude inputs nationwide were higher and exports of products kept relatively strong; domestic gasoline consumption remained below last year, but not by much.

Gasoline inventories drew, as stocks were 11.3 million barrels below last year and 14.3 million barrels over 2015; both numbers have moved in a bullish direction.

Crude inventories down 7.2m barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending July 14 showed a 7.2 million barrel decrease in crude inventories to 483.4 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA). This is the 14th week in the last 17 in which inventories have decreased.

Over the past four weeks alone, crude inventories have dropped 25.8 million barrels.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.410 million b/d, down 19,000 b/d for the week, but 895,000 b/d higher versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 48,000 b/d to 8.0 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.8 million b/d, a decrease of 4.2% compared to last year at this time.

Gasoline imports increase to 723,000 b/d

Total gasoline imports were put at 723,000 b/d, up from 591,000 b/d the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 869,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 130,000 b/d, up from 126,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 93,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.2 million b/d, up 4.6% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 1.0 million barrels to 230.2 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA), 11.3 million barrels below last year. Demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, off 0.3% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 149.6 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range”), down 1.9 million barrels compared with last week, and 2.4 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.2 million b/d, up 13.2% compared with the same period last year.

Propane inventories up 0.2m barrels

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 65.9 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), up 0.2 million barrels on the week, and lower by 23.7 million barrels versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs averaged 17.3 million b/d, higher by 166,000 b/d, to 94.3% of capacity, up 0.3 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were off 0.6 percentage points to 95.4%.

Also, net exports of all products were put 2.426 million b/d, down 407,000 b/d for the week, still a bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.393 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.2 million b/d, but production was 5.131 million b/d.

Crude exports rise to 1.03m b/d

Exports of crude oil were 1.030 million b/d, up from 728,000 b/d the previous week and up from 677,000 b/d last year at this time. -- Robert Sharp

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