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POST DOE WRAP: Crude stocks rise again, NYMEX up with gasoline draw

HOUSTON, August 3, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were higher early Wednesday after government figures showed a drop in gasoline stocks, a gain in oil supplies and a modest decrease in crude production week on week.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes dropped slightly nationwide. Domestic gasoline demand remains robust and export volumes of products improved.

As of 9:58 am CST, September NYMEX WTI rose $0.71/bbl to $40.22/bbl; September gasoline rose 1.24 cpg to 132.40 cpg and September diesel rose 1.75 cpg to 127.65 cpg.

Crude inventories rise

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending July 29 showed a 1.4 million barrel increase in crude inventories to 522.5 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.465 million b/d, down 55,000 b/d for the week, and 1.005 million b/d lower versus the same period last year.

This is the first week in the last three that crude production has fallen on a week to week basis (inventories still are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA).

Imports of crude were up 301,000 b/d to 8.4 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.3 million b/d, an increase of 10.4% compared to last year at this time.

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.5 million b/d, up 0.6% versus the same period last year.

Gasoline inventories fall

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 3.3 million barrels to 238.2 million (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Demand was 9.8 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 2.2% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks rose 1.2 million barrels to 153.2 million (“well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was down 1.9 % to 3.6 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 89.9 million barrels, up 0.3 million b/d versus last year.

Refinery runs up slightly

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million b/d,up 266,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were up 0.9% on the week, put at 93.3% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs were down 0.2% to 93.2%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 1.721 million b/d, up 179,000 b/d for the week, a slightly bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.8 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 10.276 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.6 million b/d, but production was 4.940 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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