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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX RBOB falls despite gasoline draw

HOUSTON, August 10, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Wednesday after government figures showed a drop in gasoline stocks, and a modest fall in crude production week on week.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline, and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes dropped slightly nationwide. Domestic gasoline demand remains robust, and export volumes of products were essentially flat.

As of 9:50 am CST, September NYMEX WTI fell $0.04/bbl to $42.73/bbl; September gasoline dropped 0.49 cpg to 134.13 cpg, and September diesel rose 0.19 cpg to 133.26 cpg.

Crude inventories are up

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending August 5 showed a 1.1 million barrel increase in crude inventories to 523.6 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.445 million b/d, down 15,000 b/d for the week, and 0.955 million b/d lower versus the same period last year.

This is the second week in the last four crude production has fallen on a week to week basis (inventories still are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA).

Imports of crude were down 334,000 b/d to 8.4 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.4 million b/d, an increase of 11.5% compared to last year at this time.

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.8 million b/d, up 1.9% versus the same period last year.

Gasoline inventories fell

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 2.8 million barrels 235.4 million (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Demand was 9.8 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 1.7% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks fell 2.0 million barrels to 151.2 million (“near the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was up 2.4 % to 3.8 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 91.9 million barrels, up 2.0 million versus last year.

Refinery runs were off slightly

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million b/d, down 255,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were down 1.1% on the week, put at 92.2% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs were up 1.1% to 94.3%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 1.698 million b/d, down 23,000 for the week, a slightly bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.8 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 10.098 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.6 million b/d, but production was 4.739 million.  -- Robert Sharp

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