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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX Crude falls on stock build, other products mixed

HOUSTON, August 24, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Wednesday after government figures showed a build in crude stocks.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes dropped nationwide. Domestic gasoline demand remains robust, but export volumes of products were lower.

As of 9:59 am CST, October NYMEX WTI fell $1.28/bbl to $46.82/bbl; September gasoline rose 0.16 cpg to 1.5004 cpg and September diesel fell 1.04 cpg to 147.37 cpg.

Crude inventories rise

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending August 19 showed a 2.5 million barrel increase in crude inventories to 523.6 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.548 million b/d, down 49,000 b/d for the week and 789,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.

Inventories still are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA.

Imports of crude were up 449,000 b/d to 8.6 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.5 million b/d, an increase of 13.3% compared to last year at this time.

Gasoline imports were put at 801,000 b/d, up from 601,000 b/d from the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 630,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 224,000 b/d, up from 92,000 b/d last week and 201,000 b/d the previous year (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.8 million b/d, up 2.3% versus the same period last year.

Gasoline inventories unchanged

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were unchanged at 232.7 million barrels (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 18.3 million barrels over last year. Demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 1.8% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks rose 0.1 million barrels to 153.1 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks was flat at 3.7 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 96.1 million barrels, up 2.4 million barrels on the week, and up 400,000 barrels versus last year.

Refinery runs down slightly

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.7 million b/d, down 186,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis fell 1% on the week, put at 92.5% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs were down 2.4% to 92.3%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 1.374 million b/d, down 356,000 b/d for the week, which is a bearish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 10.035 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.7 million b/d, but production was 4.849 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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