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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX Crude falls on stock build

HOUSTON, August 31, 2016 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were lower early Wednesday after government figures showed another build in crude stocks.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline and diesel. Refinery crude input volumes dropped nationwide. Domestic gasoline demand remains robust and export volumes of products were up significantly.

As of 9:53 am CST, October NYMEX WTI was down $1.03/bbl to $45.32/bbl, October gasoline fell 2.84 cpg to 1.3745 cpg and October diesel shed 4.06 cpg to 144.41 cpg.

Crude inventories increase

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending August 26 showed a 2.3 million barrel increase in crude inventories to 525.9 million barrels. Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.488 million b/d, down 60,000 b/d for the week, and 730,000 b/d lower versus the same period last year.

Inventories still are “historically high” for this time of year, per the EIA.

Imports of crude were up 275,000 b/d to 8.9 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.5 million b/d, an increase of 11.4% compared to last year at this time.

Essentially, domestic crude production is falling, but imports are replacing the lost barrels.

Gasoline imports were put at 832,000 b/d, up from 801,000 b/d from the previous week. For the same period last year, the figure was 834,000 b/d. Distillate imports were128,000 b/d, down from 224,000 b/d last week and from 77,000 b/d the previous year (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.6 million b/d, up 1.3% versus the same period last year.

Gasoline inventories are lower

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were down 700,000 barrels at 232.7 million barrels (still “well above the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 17.8 million barrels over last year. Demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 1.8% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks rose 1.5 million barrels to 154.8 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA). Distillate demand over the past four weeks rose 1.7% to 3.8 million b/d compared to the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 98.5 million barrels, up 2.4 million barrels on the week, and up 2.2 million barrels versus last year.

Refinery runs down slightly

Total US refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million b/d, down 64,000 b/d compared to the previous week. Inputs of crude oil nationwide to refineries on a percentage basis were up 0.3% on the week, put at 92.8% of capacity. In the Gulf Coast (PADD III), inputs were up 0.4% to 92.7%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.159 million b/d, up 759,000 b/d for the week, a bullish number after a few weeks of bearish figures. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, gasoline production came in at 10.021 million b/d. Distillate demand was 3.7 million b/d, but production was 4.973 million b/d. -- Robert Sharp

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