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POST DOE WRAP: Futures fall despite crude and gasoline supply decrease
HOUSTON, August 2, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were down early Wednesday despite government figures that showed again a significant decrease in crude stocks.
The US remains long in crude, gasoline, and diesel, but inventories were seen by many as bullish, at least moderately so.
As of 10:10 am CDT, September NYMEX WTI fell $0.32/bbl to $48.78/bbl; September gasoline dropped 3.09 cpg to 163.04 cpg; and September diesel was off 1.13 cpg to 163.00 cpg.
Crude exports are were lower but still historically high; total domestic product demand remained strong.
Refinery crude inputs nationwide were higher and exports of products kept relatively strong; domestic gasoline consumption inched above last year.
Gasoline inventories drew, as stocks were 11.3 million barrels below last year and 9.0 million over 2015; both numbers have moved in a bullish direction in the past few weeks.
Crude inventories fall 1.5 million barrels
The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending July 28 showed a 1.5 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 481.9 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA). This is the 15th week in the last 18 in which inventories have decreased.
Over the past four weeks alone, crude inventories have dropped 13.4 million barrels.
Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.430 million b/d, up 20,000 for the week, and 970,000 higher versus the same period last year.
Imports of crude were up 209,000 b/d to 8.3 million on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.0 million b/d, a decrease of 3.8% compared to last year at this time.
Gasoline imports decrease to 549,000 b/d
Total gasoline imports were put at 549,000 b/d, down from 723,000 the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 637,000. Distillate imports were 108,000 b/d, down from 130,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 96,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).
Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.8 million b/d, up 1.4% versus the same period last year.
Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 2.5 million barrels to 227.7 million (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA), 10.5 million below last year. Demand was 9.8 million b/d over the past four weeks, up 0.1% from the same period last year.
Distillate stocks totaled 149.4 million barrels (in the upper limit of the average range”), down 0.2 million compared with last week, and 3.7 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.2 million b/d, up 13.2% compared with the same period last year.
Propane inventories are up 1.7 million
Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 67.6 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), up 1.7 million on the week, but lower by 22.3 million versus last year.
Total US refinery crude inputs averaged 17.4 million b/d, higher by 123,000 b/d, to 95.4% of capacity, up 1.1 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 1.4 percentage points to 97.0%.
Also, net exports of all products were put 2.551 million b/d, up 125,000 for the week, a bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.
While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.8 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.295 million. Distillate demand was 4.2 million b/d, but production was 5.232 million.
Exports of crude oil were 702,000 b/d, down from 1.030 millon the previous week and up from 677,000 last year at this time. -- Robert Sharp