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Post DOE Wrap: Futures mixed following drop in oil supplies, build in gasoline
HOUSTON, August 9, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Wednesday after government figures showed again a significant decrease in crude stocks, but a build in gasoline.
The US remains long in crude, gasoline, and diesel; product exports looked bearish.
As of 10:01 am CDT, September NYMEX WTI rose $0.02/bbl to $49.19/bbl; September gasoline dropped 1.77 cpg to 160.31 cpg; and September diesel was off 0.25 cpg to 162.67 cpg.
Crude exports were essentially flat but still historically high; total domestic product demand remained strong. Refinery crude inputs nationwide were higher; domestic gasoline consumption was essentially flat.
Gasoline inventories built for the first time since the week of June 9, but stocks were 3.4 million barrels below last year and 5.7 million over 2015; both those numbers have moved in a bullish direction in the past few weeks.
Crude inventories fall 6.5 million barrels
The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ended August 4 showed a 6.5 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 475.4 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA). This is the 16th week in the last 19 in which inventories have decreased.
Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.423 million b/d, off 7,000 for the week, but 978,000 higher versus the same period last year.
Imports of crude were down 491,000 b/d to 7.8 million on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8 million b/d, a decrease of 4.9% compared with last year at this time.
Total gasoline imports were put at 1,108,000 b/d, up from 549,000 the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 930,000. Distillate imports were 41,000 b/d, down from 108,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 184,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).
Total product demand is up 2.3%
Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.2 million b/d, up 2.3% versus the same period last year.
Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were up 3.4 million barrels to 231.1 million (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA), 4.3 million below last year. Demand was 9.8 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.1% from the same period last year.
Distillate stocks totaled 147.7 million barrels (in the upper half of the average range”), down 1.7 million compared with last week, and 3.5 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.3 million b/d, up 13.3% compared with the same period last year.
Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 67.6 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), unchanged on the week, but lower by 24.3 million versus last year.
Total crude input increases 0.9%
Total US refinery crude inputs averaged 17.6 million b/d, higher by 166,000 b/d, to 96.3% of capacity, up 0.9 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were off 1.5 percentage point to 95.5%.
Also, net exports of all products were put 1.577 million b/d, down 974,000 for the week, a bearish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.
While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.8 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.301 million. Distillate demand was 4.3 million b/d, but production was 5.305 million.
Crude exports fall 5,000 b/d
Exports of crude oil were 707,000 b/d, down from 702,000 for the previous week and up from 677,000 last year at this time. -- Robert Sharp