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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures are mixed despite crude inventory decrease
HOUSTON, August 16, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Wednesday after government figures showed again a significant decrease in crude stocks.
The US remains long in crude, gasoline, and diesel; product exports looked bullish.
As of 10:00 am CDT, September NYMEX WTI was unchanged at $47.55/bbl; September gasoline rose 0.38 cpg to 158.53 cpg; and September diesel fell 0.62 cpg to 159.34 cpg.
Crude exports were high; total domestic product demand remained strong. Refinery crude inputs nationwide were lower, and domestic gasoline consumption was essentially flat.
Gasoline inventories built, but stocks were 1.6 million barrels below last year and 18.3 million over 2015; both those numbers moved in a bearish direction in the past week.
Crude inventories fall 8.9 million barrels
The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending August 11 showed an 8.9 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 466.5 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA). This is the 17th week in the last 20 in which inventories have decreased.
Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.502 million b/d, up 79,000 b/d for the week, but 905,000 b/d higher versus the same period last year.
Imports of crude were up 364,000 b/d to 8.1 million b/d. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.0 million b/d, a decrease of 4.7% compared to last year at this time.
Total gasoline imports were put at 667,000 b/d, down from 1,108,000 b/d the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 610,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 167,000 b/d, up 41,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 92,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).
Total product demand is up 2.0%
Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.2 million b/d, up 2.0% versus the same period last year.
Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were unchanged at 231.1 million (“near the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 1.5 million below last year. Demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.3% from the same period last year.
Distillate stocks totaled 148.4 million barrels (in the upper half of the average range), up 0.7 million compared with last week, and 4.7 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.3 million b/d, up 15.9% compared with the same period last year.
Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 67.6 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), up 1.6 million on the week, but lower by 24.5 million versus last year.
Total crude input falls 0.2%
Total US refinery crude inputs averaged 17.6 million b/d, lower by 9,000 b/d, or 96.1% of capacity, down 0.2 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 0.5 percentage point to 97.0%.
Also, net exports of all products were put 2.616 million b/d, up 1.039 million b/d for the week, a bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.
While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.048 million. Distillate demand was 4.3 million b/d, but production was 5.287 million b/d.
Crude exports fall 5,000 b/d
Exports of crude oil were 877,000 b/d, up from 707,000 b/d for the previous week and up from 677,000 last year at this time.