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NGLs Week is PetroChem Wire's comprehensive summary of price trends, upstream and downstream costs, operations news and supply/demand forecasts. The report contains everything you'll need to understand what's happening in the NGL markets.

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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures rise with crude inventory decrease

HOUSTON, August 23, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were up early Wednesday after government figures showed again a significant decrease in crude stocks.

As of 10:03 am CDT, October NYMEX WTI was up $0.18/bbl at $48.01/bbl; September gasoline rose 1.07 cpg to 160.15 cpg and September diesel increased 2.14 cpg to 161.26 cpg.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline, and diesel; product exports remained robust, however.

Crude exports were high; total domestic product demand remained healthy. Refinery crude inputs nationwide were a bit lower and domestic gasoline consumption was essentially flat. Gasoline inventories built, but stocks are 2.8 million barrels below last year and 14.6 million barrels over 2015; both those numbers have moved in a bearish direction in recent weeks.

Crude inventories fall 3.3 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending August 18 showed a 3.3 million barrel decrease in commercial crude inventories to 463.2 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA). This is the 18th week in the last 21 in which inventories have decreased.

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.528 million b/d, up 26,000 b/d for the week, but 980,000 b/d higher versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 664,000 b/d to 8.8 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.2 million b/d, a decrease of 3.1% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 555,000 b/d, down from 667,000 b/d the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 801,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 132,000 b/d, down from 167,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 224,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand up 1.4%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.0 million b/d, up 1.4% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 1.2 million barrels at 229.2 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range,” per the EIA), 2.8 million barrels below last year. Demand was 9.7 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.4% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 148.4 million barrels (in the upper half of the average range”), unchanged compared with last week, and 4.8 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.2 million b/d, up 14.4% compared with the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 72.2 million barrels (“in the lower half of the average range”), up 2.9 million barrels on the week, but lower by 24.0 million barrels versus last year.

Total crude input falls 0.7%

Total US refinery crude inputs averaged 17.5 million b/d, lower by 104,000 b/d, to 95.4% of capacity, down 0.7 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were down 1.7 percentage points to 95.3%.

Also, net exports of all products were put 2.531million b/d, off 83,000 b/d million for the week, still a bullish number. The US needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.7 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 10.566 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.2 million b/d, but production was 5.091 million b/d.

Crude exports rise 59,000 b/d

Exports of crude oil were 936,000 b/d, up from 877,000 b/d for the previous week and up from 677,000 b/d last year at this time, and 477,000 b/d two years ago. -- Robert Sharp

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