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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures mixed with statistics showing Harvey effects

HOUSTON, September 7, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Wednesday, after government figures showed an increase in crude stocks.

The dampening effects of Hurricane Harvey caused dramatically lower refinery runs in the Gulf Coast.

As of 10:45 am CDT, October NYMEX WTI was down $0.22/bbl at $48.94/bbl; October gasoline fell 3.64 cpg to 166.27 cpg and October diesel increased 0.91 cpg to 176.86 cpg.

The US remains long in crude, gasoline and diesel; product exports were hurt, which is likely a short-term situation.

Crude inventories up 4.6 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending September 1 showed a 4.6 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 462.4 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 8.781 million b/d, down 749,000 b/d for the week, but 323,000 b/d higher versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were off 822,000 b/d to 7.1 million b/d on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 8.0 million b/d, a decrease of 2.8% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 475,000 b/d, down from 839,000 b/d from the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 607,000 b/d. Distillate imports were 110,000 b/d, up from 84,000 b/d on the week; the figure for last year was 108,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand up 0.2%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 21.2 million b/d, up 0.2% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 3.2 million barrels to at 226.7 million barrels (“near the upper limit of the average range” ), 1.1 million barrels below last year. Demand was 9.5 million b/d over the past four weeks, off 1% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 147.8 million barrels (in the upper half of the average range”), down 1.4 million barrels compared with last week, and 7.3 million barrels below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, up 9.9% compared with the same period last year.

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 79.9 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range”), up 6.3 million barrels on the week, but lower by 19.2 million barrels versus last year.

Total crude input drops 3.3 million b/d

Total US refinery crude inputs averaged 14.5 million b/d, down by 3.3 million b/d. US refinery runs were at 79.7% of capacity, lower by 16.9%. In PADD III (the Gulf Coast) runs were down 32.6% to 63.4%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 197,000 b/d, off 1.7 million b/d million for the week, a bearish number and likely an anomaly. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

However this week exports were not needed to balance gasoline inventories. While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.5 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.486 million b/d. Distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, but production was 4.492 million b/d, so it will be necessary to export.

Crude exports fall 902,000 b/d

Exports of crude oil were 153,000 b/d, down from 902,000 b/d from the previous week and lower by 501,000 b/d last year at this time. -- Robert Sharp

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