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POST DOE WRAP: NYMEX futures mixed as supplies increase, refineries recover

HOUSTON, September 20, 2017 (PCW) -- NYMEX crude and products futures prices were mixed early Wednesday, after government figures showed an increase in crude stocks.

As of 9:57 am CDT, October NYMEX WTI was up $0.37/bbl at $49.85/bbl; October gasoline fell 1.13 cpg to 165.71 cpg; and October diesel decreased 0.57 cpg to 177.39 cpg.

The effects of Hurricane Harvey were still seen in lower gasoline and diesel inventories in particular, but the refining complex shows that things are getting back to normal, which includes healthy exports.

Crude inventories rise 4.6 million barrels

The US Energy Information Administration statistics for the week ending September 15 showed a 4.6 million barrel increase in commercial crude inventories to 472.8 million barrels (“in the upper half of the average range,” per the EIA).

Domestic crude oil production was put at 9.510 million b/d, up 157,000 for the week, and 464,000 higher versus the same period last year.

Imports of crude were up 888,000 b/d to 7.4 million on the week. Over the past four weeks, crude imports averaged 7.2million b/d, a decrease of 10.9% compared to last year at this time.

Total gasoline imports were put at 687,000 b/d, up from 556,000 the previous week; for the same period last year the figure was 569,000. Distillate imports were 82,000 b/d, up from 63,000 on the week; the figure for last year was 70,000 b/d (typically the US imports products to the US East Coast and exports from the US Gulf Coast).

Total product demand is up 0.5%

Total product demand over the past four weeks was put at 20.4 million b/d, up 0.5% versus the same period last year.

Total gasoline inventories (including blendstocks) were off 2.1 million barrels to at 216.2 million (“in the upper half of the average range”), 9.0 million below last year. Only a few weeks ago, on August 16, gasoline inventories were 1.6 million below last year.

Gasoline demand was 9.5 million b/d over the past four weeks, down 0.2% from the same period last year.

Distillate stocks totaled 138.9 million barrels (in the middle of the average range”), down 5.7 million compared with last week, and 26.1 million below last year. Distillate demand over the past four weeks was 4.1 million b/d, up 14.5% compared with the same period last year.

Propane stocks fall 1.4 million

Propane/propylene inventories on the week were 80.8 million barrels (“in the middle of the average range”), off 1.4 million on the week, but lower by 20.9 million versus last year.

Total US refinery crude inputs on the week averaged 15.2 million b/d, up by 1.1 million b/d, 83.2% of capacity, higher by 5.5 percentage points. In PADD 3 (the Gulf Coast) runs were up 12.3 percentage points to 73%.

Also, net exports of all products were put at 2.435 million b/d, up 1.427 million for the week, a bullish number. The US typically needs to export products to keep inventories manageable.

While domestic gasoline demand was put at 9.5 million b/d, total gasoline production came in at 9.793 million. Distillate demand was 4.1 million b/d, but production was 4.543 million.

Crude exports rise

Exports of crude oil were 928,000 b/d, up from 774,000 from the previous week; one year ago the figure was 588,000. -- Robert Sharp

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